Four intervals a year decide what you pay to be connected.
In ERCOT today, four fifteen-minute coincident peaks set a large customer's transmission allocation for the following year. The intervals are identified retrospectively; responding to the wrong one consumes value now.
Metis decides whether to respond, how much, and with which asset.
It combines peak probability with the real cost and feasibility of curtailment, storage, generation, shifting, or holding.
ERCOT is the first implementation. The same decision loop can be fitted to another ISO's demand, capacity, or curtailment rules.
How ERCOT 4CP actually works.
One monthly fifteen-minute system peak in June, July, August, and September determines the allocation. The operating problem is deciding whether the probability-weighted saving is worth the site response required.
Four intervals allocate annual exposure
One fifteen-minute demand peak in each of June, July, August, and September determines the allocation used for the following year.
The cost-setting interval is retrospective
The interval is known only after the fact. Every response is a probability-weighted call made under uncertainty.
Every false response carries opportunity cost
Curtailing load, running generation, or discharging storage consumes process value, fuel, cycles, reserve, or market opportunity.
12CP turns a seasonal tactic into a year-round operating policy.
The current PUCT proposal would replace four summer fifteen-minute peaks with one thirty-minute peak in every month. That triples the number of cost-setting intervals, doubles response duration, and introduces winter and shoulder-season regimes.
The rule is proposed, not adopted. Metis treats the tariff definition as a versioned input, so the policy can be replayed under the current rule, the proposal, or a later adopted form before authority changes.
- In effect today
- Four monthly 15-minute coincident peaks, June through September.
- Proposed replacement
- Twelve monthly 30-minute coincident peaks, October through September.
- Current rulemaking status
- Proposed, not adopted. Comments close 11 August 2026; earliest possible adoption is 23 August 2026.
Peak response is a decision, not an alert.
Metis does not stop at a peak forecast. It combines the probability of exposure with the cost and feasibility of every response, then returns one bounded action with the alternatives and abstention threshold attached.
Ingest the site
Combine interval meter and telemetry, historical load, tariff exposure, asset state, market positions, and operator limits.
Predict the interval
Estimate the probability that each interval sets the monthly or system peak using weather, calendar, load, outages, and the latest grid state.
Price every response
Value curtailed process, fuel, starts, storage wear, lost market revenue, resilience reserve, service risk, and rebound.
Decide—or abstain
Return the asset, MW, start, duration, and reserve only when expected avoided cost clears response cost and the agreed uncertainty threshold.
Use the assets and data already on site.
Metis fits the decision to the meters, historian, EMS or BMS, generator controls, tariff records, and flexibility already in place. Historical intervals are enough to begin a replay; live telemetry is added for shadow operation.
Flexible load
Model which load can move, by how much, for how long, and at what process, service, or rebound cost.
Storage
Commit state of charge without breaking resilience, warranty, energy-market, or next-interval value.
On-site generation
Test whether avoided transmission cost clears fuel, start, ramp, minimum-run, emissions, and maintenance costs.
Replay the intervals that set your transmission cost.
Metis rebuilds the historical exposure, registers the responses and operating limits already available, and shows when a fitted policy would have acted, abstained, and what difference it would have made before anything touches control.
Benchmark your peak response →