Congestion rights, path valuation, and constraint risk

Forward congestion views before the auction closes.

A grid-aware view of paths, constraints, and outages. Bid, skip, price, and size for each path.

Replay one pathSee an example path bid

Horizon

Monthly and seasonal auctions

Inputs

Paths, constraints, outages

Output

Auction-ready path views

Why it matters

The expensive miss happens before execution.

FTR and CRR books are won before the auction clears, pricing congestion before the constraints are visible.

Historical averages miss the events that drive binds: outages, renewable ramps, seasonal load shape.

The hard call is which paths deserve capital, at what reservation price, and at what size.

Twin runtime

Model the system. Forecast the grid. Plug the answer back in.

A live twin of the assets, constraints, and market context you operate. Metis forecasts what changes next and writes the answer back to the tools that execute.

01Model the path book
02Forecast constraints
03Score auction bids
04Write to desk systems
TwinGraphERCOT path book - system

ERCOT path book

8 signals9 flows

Source-sink paths

312 paths

Auction clears

monthly

Constraint regimes

5 likely

Outage schedule

2 active

Metis runtime

p50 edge

Portfolio limits

31% open

Path packet

bid

Auction workbook

ready

Integration surface

Around the systems energy teams already run.

Surface

Market data

Examples

ISO/RTO feeds, Yes Energy, weather and outage APIs

Metis reads

Prices, awards, outages, load, renewable shape

Metis returns

Forecast features and settlement trace

Surface

Site systems

Examples

EMS, SCADA, AVEVA PI, inverter telemetry

Metis reads

SOC, limits, alarms, site load, generation state

Metis returns

Advisory setpoints and operator rationale

Surface

Control and bidding

Examples

Fluence Mosaic, Wartsila GEMS, Tesla Autobidder

Metis reads

Bid state, controller constraints, execution windows

Metis returns

Dispatch or bid, once approved

Surface

Asset operations

Examples

Power Factors, warehouse, maintenance systems

Metis reads

Availability, derates, work orders, performance history

Metis returns

Constraint updates and asset-level traces

Surface

Desk and risk

Examples

PCI, ION, ETRM, blotter and risk systems

Metis reads

Positions, contracts, limits, exposure

Metis returns

Trade, hedge frame, risk-bounded call

Surface

Automation

Examples

API, MCP, Python and agent workflows

Metis reads

Typed context and workflow state

Metis returns

Decisions, audit trace, model outputs

Decision loop

Choose which paths to bid, and at what price, before the auction closes.

For each path, what is the day-ahead congestion spread going to do, where will constraints bind, and is the clearing price cheap or rich versus that forward view?

Data in

Yours

  • Current DAM/SCED binding constraints and shadow prices
  • CRR/FTR clearing prices and prior obligation outcomes

Metis adds

  • Settlement-point prices, source-to-sink spread history
  • Recurring GTC bind regimes by season and condition
  • Transmission and generation outage schedules
  • Wind/solar forecasts on export-constrained corridors

Plus cross-ISO history and pretrained time-series models.

Metis decision core

  • 01Model
  • 02Forecast
  • 03Backtest
  • 04Recommend

Same core, every desk.

Decision packet

Why

Bid the HB_WEST to HB_HOUSTON peak obligation up to a reservation price at the forecast p50, sized to binding-constraint confidence rather than the tail, and skip the off-peak hours where the spread straddles zero.

High on direction (positive spread), medium on magnitude (p90 tail)

Auction bid watchlistPath forecast feed · CSV/JSONAPI / MCP feedConstraint bind watchlist

Calls Metis scores

From forecast to control.

Bid the path or skip it

Expected spread versus clearing price, before the auction closes.

Set reservation price and size

The spread distribution becomes a price and a quantity.

Watch the constraint thesis

The outages and ramps that would strengthen or break the view.

Proof path

Replay the auction before you bid.

Historical auctions through Metis, bid and skip calls graded against settled congestion.

  1. 01

    Replay one path

    Historical auctions for one path, no future data leaking in.

  2. 02

    Grade against settled congestion

    Bid and skip calls versus realized congestion.

  3. 03

    Put the path view to work

    Watchlists, feeds, or API once calibration is trusted.

Other energy desks

BESS & on-site generation→Power traders→

Prove it on one hard call.

Bring one asset, hub, node, or desk benchmark. Metis will replay it and show you, day by day, where the call changes.

Replay one path