DA/RT positioning, hedge timing, and risk
Decision packets for the day-ahead and real-time power desk.
Metis reads the same grid, weather, outage, and price state your desk watches, then turns the forecast into a size, direction, hedge, and risk-bounded trade rationale.
Horizon
Hours to weeks
Markets
ISO hubs and nodes
Output
Blotter-ready calls
Proof path
Replay the desk call before you wire it in.
Run a season of market history through Metis, grade the calls against settled outcomes, and integrate only after the desk trusts the calibration.
- 01
Start with one hub or node
Pick the desk's hardest repeated call and replay a full season of DA/RT outcomes.
- 02
Grade on settled P&L drivers
Compare direction, magnitude, tail behavior, and avoided bad trades against the desk baseline.
- 03
Integrate the packet
Deliver into the blotter, ETRM, risk feed, API, or agent workflow once the desk trusts calibration.
Why it matters
The expensive miss happens before execution.
The desk is usually not short on forecasts. It is short on a repeatable way to turn conflicting signals into a sized position.
The published ISO forecast is fine on normal days and least useful on heat onset, scarcity, outage, and congestion regimes.
The highest-value edge is not a prettier chart. It is knowing when the curve has underpriced a regime shift and how much risk to take.
Twin runtime
Model the system. Forecast the grid. Plug the answer back in.
Metis builds a live twin around the decision surface you already operate: the assets, desk state, constraints, market context, and software systems. The runtime forecasts what changes next, scores feasible moves, and writes the packet back to the tools that execute.
ERCOT North book
Weather regime
+9 F
Net load ramp
+8.4 GW
ERCOT North hub
$71/MWh
Constraint state
2 active
Metis runtime
+$18 edge
Risk limits
42% open
Trade packet
draft
ETRM writeback
ready
Weather regime
+9 F
Net load ramp
+8.4 GW
ERCOT North hub
$71/MWh
Constraint state
2 active
Metis runtime
+$18 edge
Risk limits
42% open
Trade packet
draft
ETRM writeback
ready
Integration surface
Around the systems energy teams already run.
Example integration targets, not partner badges: Metis can pull from data systems, read operational state, and return bids, setpoints, or decision packets through APIs and control interfaces.
Surface
Market data
Examples
ISO/RTO feeds, Yes Energy, weather and outage APIs
Metis reads
Prices, awards, outages, load, renewable shape
Metis returns
Forecast features and settlement trace
Surface
Site systems
Examples
EMS, SCADA, AVEVA PI, inverter telemetry
Metis reads
SOC, limits, alarms, site load, generation state
Metis returns
Advisory setpoints and operator rationale
Surface
Control and bidding
Examples
Fluence Mosaic, Wartsila GEMS, Tesla Autobidder
Metis reads
Bid state, controller constraints, execution windows
Metis returns
Dispatch or bid packet once approved
Surface
Asset operations
Examples
Power Factors, warehouse, maintenance systems
Metis reads
Availability, derates, work orders, performance history
Metis returns
Constraint updates and asset-level traces
Surface
Desk and risk
Examples
PCI, ION, ETRM, blotter and risk systems
Metis reads
Positions, contracts, limits, exposure
Metis returns
Trade packet, hedge frame, risk-bounded call
Surface
Automation
Examples
API, MCP, Python and agent workflows
Metis reads
Typed context and workflow state
Metis returns
Decision packets, audit trace, model outputs
Runtime
Metis turns market state into a tradeable recommendation.
The runtime reads desk feeds and Metis signals, forecasts the price distributions that matter, scores candidate positions against desk limits, and returns a call with drivers and a settlement trace.
01
Desk state
Current positions, limits, hub and nodal prices, load and net-load shape, generation stack, and internal curves.
02
Metis forecast core
Weather regimes, outage notices, scarcity signals, renewable ramps, congestion history, and pretrained time-series models.
03
Trade packet
Long or short, size, hedge, confidence, downside frame, drivers, and API delivery into blotter or risk tooling.
Decision loop
Set the day-ahead position and hedge before the market clears.
For tomorrow's peak block at this hub, do I go long or short day-ahead versus real-time, how big, and where do I set the hedge?
Data in
Yours
- LMP by hub and node (energy, congestion, loss)
- System load and net load, evening ramp shape
- Generation stack, wind/solar, reserve margin
Metis adds
- Weather across load and renewable zones
- Outage and derate notices, scarcity alerts
- Settled DA/RT prices, congestion history
Plus cross-ISO history and pretrained time-series models.
Metis decision core
- 1Read
- 2Forecast
- 3Score
- 4Recommend
Same core, every desk.
Decision packet
WhyGo long day-ahead at North across the HE18 to HE20 ramp (expecting RT to settle above DA), sized to a moderate fraction of the block limit, and hedge the wings with a short on the soft midday HE13 to HE14 block. A shape trade, not an outright long.
Medium-high on direction, lower on magnitude (scarcity tail)
Calls Metis scores
From forecast to control.
Set the DA position
Translate load, renewables, outages, and reserve margin into a directional view before the market clears.
Hedge the wings
Shape the position around soft intervals, congestion exposure, and scarcity tails instead of treating the block as one bet.
Size against risk limits
Express confidence and downside as a trade size the desk can actually put on.
More energy pages
Split by the decision in front of the operator.
Prove it on one hard call.
Bring one asset, hub, node, or desk baseline. Metis will replay it, grade the lift, and show where the runtime changes the decision.